ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Year : 2018  |  Volume : 20  |  Issue : 2  |  Page : 184-188

External validation and newly development of a nomogram to predict overall survival of abiraterone-treated, castration-resistant patients with metastatic prostate cancer


1 Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China
2 Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

Correspondence Address:
Bo Dai
Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

Ding-Wei Ye
Department of Urology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Shanghai 200032, China; Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None


DOI: 10.4103/aja.aja_39_17

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Abiraterone acetate is approved for the treatment of castration-resistant prostate cancer(CRPC); however, its effects vary. An accurate prediction model to identify patient groups that will benefit from abiraterone treatment is therefore urgently required. The Chi model exhibits a good profile for risk classification, although its utility for the chemotherapy-naive group is unclear. This study aimed to externally validate the Chi model and develop a new nomogram to predict overall survival(OS). We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 110patients. Patients were distributed among good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups, according to the Chi model. The good-, intermediate-, and poor-risk groups had a sample size of 59(53.6%), 34(30.9%), and 17(15.5%) in our dataset, and a median OS of 48.4, 29.1, and 10.5months, respectively. The C-index of external validation of Chi model was 0.726. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified low hemoglobin concentrations(<110g l−1), liver metastasis, and a short time interval from androgen deprivation therapy to abiraterone initiation(<36months) as predictors of OS. Accordingly, a new nomogram was developed with a C-index equal to 0.757(95% CI, 0.678–0.836). In conclusion, the Chi model predicted the prognosis of abiraterone-treated, chemotherapy-naive patients with mCRPC, and we developed a new nomogram to predict the overall survival of this group of patients with less parameters.


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